The Harvey Greenwood Column

Friday 29 November, 2002

Three from Five

As my annual 'bash the bookie' accumulator is nearing with Christmas and I attack them with who will win each league and they gratefully take my money off me, some studying of leagues and form has taken place, augmented by a great deal of crystal ball gazing!

With our current plight and league position my eyes kept rolling towards the bottom of the First Division, and the question I keep asking myself is 'who are the three that will finish below us?'

As at time of writing we are in 20th place, played 20 with 19 points. The four teams below us are (from bottom up), Brighton (P18, pts 12), Sheff Wed (19-13), Stoke (20-14) and Grimsby (20-17).

Looking at who is above us I cannot see any teams that would drop down in to the relegation zone, therefore it is a simple three from five equation.

Focusing on these teams there has been some interesting moves in recent weeks. Brighton, Sheff Wed and Stoke have all put new managers in place.

We have managed to kick start Brighton's season, and Steve Coppell has been taking lessons from Sir Alex on mind games, stating that they were already relegated and they were playing for pride. Yeah right! Coppell is an excellent manager, has already changed their formation, got them organised and brought in some players he has worked with before. They have two games in hand on us (luckily they are not easy matches against Forest and Ipswich), however they are now only five points off safety. They are the team at the bottom who are on a roll. You do not need much of a roll to ensure you are safe come May.

If you believe in us staying up, with players to come back to kick start our season, you are left with a threesome of Sheff Wed, Stoke and Grimsby.

If you are more pessimistic and are firmly in the doom camp, one of those three drops out of the relegation trio. If there is one it will be Sheff Wed. They have installed a good new manager in Chris Turner, got rid of the Yorath plague that goes with him wherever he manages, and have some decent players. Some form of turnaround would not be a surprise.

Of the three teams that have changed manager Stoke are probably worst off. They have lost a manager they didn't want to lose, and new manager Pulis still has a lot to prove. Grimsby have little room to improve whatever, and both Stoke and Grimsby have as bad a defence as us with 37 and 39 goals leaked already.

So if you think we are in the relegation equation it is with Stoke and Grimsby.

For those with a negative vibe a City, Stoke and Grimsby treble will give you an 18:1 payback.

My tenner is a positive one with a relegation treble of Sheff Wed, Stoke and Grimsby. Current odds available make that a 16:1 shot.

(Disclaimer : These are the views of HG only, and do not necessarily represent those of anyone else, including the BfB team! There is no such thing as a 'dead cert' in betting and you could lose your stake!)

Index of column & Biography | mail